Obama Loss due to Bradley effect?

Ok, here it comes. Tomorrow. THE Election. The 2012 Presidential Race. Obama verses Romney. Some say good verses evil, some say black African American verses white American American.

The Polls are all over the place, but overall the objective respectable ones show a very tight race. If you want to know how accurate a poll may be, try an experiment. Put aside questions such as the demographics, methodology, question bias, push polls, small sample polls with heavy bias in survey selection (such as one I saw with Dem +10) just for the moment and consider the Bradley Effect.

From Wikipedia: 'The Bradley effect theory posits that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically correct'. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.'

Will we see a similar result tomorrow? Are the polls that far off? I analyzed several prominent polls and adjusted them for several factors to reach a relatively equal sample of D and R and independents and also properly weighted Male/Female. These adjustments were based on an average of actual voting patterns over the last few election cycles, voter registration and average turnout. This analysis shows Romney up by 2 points nationally, and up 1/2 point overall in the swing states. It should provide a few percentages points of victory and an electoral college count of 282 - here is the result published 9/23/2012: Romney Wins

The Bradley Effect is most likely at play here for many pollsters.

Expect some surprises Wednesday. And some very red faces.

Romney to WIN in Landslide - Wayne Allyn Root

An oddsmaker predicts a Romney win, and not just a win, but a dominant landslide win. Wayne Allyn Root is very good at what he does, I know, I kind of do the same thing when it comes to American Football. And I went out on the limb too, predicting a Romney win and posting it here:  Romney Wins the 2012 Presidential Election (Also on the sidebar)

My take is a bit less of a landslide, but a solid victory for the Republicans, and some pretty good coat-tails across the country. On September 23, I calculated the Electoral College at Romney 282 Obama 256, well before the debates.

Taking a new look now, I may just tend to drift a bit more to Wayne's prediction, the trend for Romney in some of the swing states looks real and looks strong. The VP debate will not be all that important to the swing states, and most likely will not move the numbers at all.

Read More: Wayne Allyn Root Predicts Romney Landslide

Romney Best Choice Say Majority of Respected Economists

Yup, even though the CNN headline is about as misleading as it can get, the facts in the article are about as clear as they can be. The Romney Economic Plan is the best choice for the USA according to the majority of repsonding economists to the CNN survey. And please recall, the biggest issue in this election is the ECONOMY! Who can jumpstart job creation? Romney!

Read more at CNN: Romney Best for Economic Recovery!

Romney Staff Memo Leaked, Lowers the Debate Bar

Strange way to leak it. Romney will most likely win the first debate and prevail in the eyes of the voters, however the MSM probably already have their Obama Wins BIG headlines and articles ready to go, no matter what happens in the actual debate. Obama can disclose recipes for tastily cooked Dog Dishes he enjoyed as a child and the MSM will tell us how nutricious and healthy they are. But the voters won't be fooled, now or in November.

Keep in mind the questions posed by the moderators will just be white noise for the candidates to ignore. Their answers will be the stock phrases memorized as the position least likely to offend the majority of voters. Follow up questions may challenge the original answer, and in this are Mitt will shine. He can actually think on his feet somewhat. POTUS often does not.

Keep it on track. It's the economy. The only answer is "I will create the conditions for more JOBS!!"

MSNBC - Another Scandal - Deceptive Tape Edit?

Good Grief! When will they ever learn? MSNBC sure seems to be following in the footsteps of its Big Brother, NBC. It appears the Romney tape they played for Morning Joe was mis-labeled, perhaps in a deliberately deceptive manner. Romney supporters who were at the campaign event disputed the appearently edited version of the tape alerting the BlazeTV staff. Judge for yourself over at the Blaze, where they provide the original and then the C-Span version.  MSNBC Scandals and Follies

2012 Election Prediction - Romney Wins!

Here it is the path to the Romney Presidency - posted 9-23-2012